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Österlen vs Sölvesborg Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland · Matchday 16 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 16:30

Österlen

PPG 1.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sölvesborg

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-16.2%0-24.4%0-32.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-07.5%1-110.6%1-27.5%1-33.5%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.5%2-19.1%2-26.4%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.7%3-15.2%3-23.7%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.3%4+-22.3%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% — — —

Draw 24.4% — — —

Away win 29.2% — — —

Over 2.5 62.7% — — —

Over 3.5 38.7% — — —

BTTS 61.8% — — —

Home O1.5 49.2% — — —

Away O1.5 43.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 30%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -18.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.8%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Österlen1.7

Sölvesborg1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.7% · O3.5 PROB 38.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ÖSTERLEN · PPG 1.29

SÖLVESBORG · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.31 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Österlen (H) 46.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sölvesborg (A) 29.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Österlen face Sölvesborg in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Österlen a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Sölvesborg 29%, so Österlen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Österlen and 1.4 for Sölvesborg (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Österlen are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.00 for Sölvesborg.

Österlen vs Sölvesborg Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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