Today / Poland - I Liga / Polonia Bytom vs Pogoń Siedlce

Polonia Bytom vs Pogoń Siedlce Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 16:00

Polonia Bytom

PPG 1.92 · HOME

UPCOMING

Pogoń Siedlce

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-14.2%0-22.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-06.9%1-18.9%1-25.8%1-32.5%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.4%2-19.6%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.3%3-16.8%3-24.4%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-16.0%4+-23.9%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 61.7% 1.62 -13.0%

Draw 22.3% 27.8% 3.60 -11.8%

Away win 24.0% 22.2% 4.50 +4.8%

Over 2.5 63.4% 58.8% 1.70 +7.8%

Over 3.5 39.9% 38.2% 2.62 +4.5%

BTTS 61.8% 58.8% 1.70 +5.1%

Home O1.5 61.4% 59.9% 1.67 +2.5%

Away O1.5 36.5% 29.4% 3.40 +24.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -9.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.8%

H 54% / xG 2.1-1.3 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.4%

#4 3–1 6.8%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Polonia Bytom2.1

Pogoń Siedlce1.3

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

POLONIA BYTOM · PPG 1.92

POGOŃ SIEDLCE · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.85 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Polonia Bytom (H) 53.7%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -13.0%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.8%

Pogoń Siedlce (A) 24.0%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Polonia Bytom face Pogoń Siedlce in Poland - I Liga on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Polonia Bytom a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Pogoń Siedlce 24%, so Polonia Bytom are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Polonia Bytom and 1.3 for Pogoń Siedlce (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Polonia Bytom are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 1.17 for Pogoń Siedlce. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +31.8%.

Polonia Bytom vs Pogoń Siedlce Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Poland - I Liga Predictions