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PPJ vs HPS Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Group A ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 16:00

PPJ

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

HPS

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 64.3% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-15.4%0-24.1%0-32.1%0-4+1.1%1 1-06.4%1-19.8%1-27.5%1-33.8%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.8%2-18.9%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.5%3-15.4%3-24.1%3-32.1%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.7%4+-22.8%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% 58.5% 1.71 -21.9%

Draw 22.5% 25.4% 3.94 -6.8%

Away win 31.8% 27.2% 3.68 +17.0%

Over 2.5 63.8% 75.8% 1.32 -15.8%

Over 3.5 42.5% 52.9% 1.89 -19.7%

BTTS 64.3% 74.1% 1.35 -13.2%

Home O1.5 50.1% 68.5% 1.46 -26.9%

Away O1.5 48.2% 46.3% 2.16 +4.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 30.2%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob64.3%

H 46% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PPJ1.8

HPS1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.8% · O3.5 PROB 42.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PPJ · PPG 1.00

HPS · PPG 1.86

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

PPJ (H) 45.7%

ODDS 1.71 · IMPLIED 58.5% EV -21.9%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.94 · IMPLIED 25.4% EV -6.8%

HPS (A) 31.8%

ODDS 3.68 · IMPLIED 27.2% EV +17.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

PPJ face HPS in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PPJ a 46% chance, the draw 23% and HPS 32%, so PPJ are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for PPJ and 1.5 for HPS (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PPJ are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.86 for HPS. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +8.8%.

PPJ vs HPS Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Match Preview & Prediction

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