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Atlantis vs Reipas Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Group A ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 16:00

Atlantis

PPG 2.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Reipas

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 80.9% vs bookmaker-implied 90.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-10.5%0-20.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-01.0%1-12.1%1-22.2%1-31.5%1-4+1.3%2 2-02.0%2-14.1%2-24.2%2-32.9%2-4+2.4%3 3-02.5%3-15.3%3-25.4%3-33.8%3-4+3.1%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-114.1%4+-214.6%4+-310.1%4+-4+8.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.9% 52.9% 1.89 +20.8%

Draw 15.9% 24.4% 4.10 -20.9%

Away win 20.1% 35.1% 2.85 -25.6%

Over 2.5 80.9% 90.9% 1.10 -11.0%

Over 3.5 69.8% 74.6% 1.34 -6.5%

BTTS 71.4% 86.2% 1.16 -17.2%

Home O1.5 78.3% 78.1% 1.28 +0.2%

Away O1.5 54.7% 68.0% 1.47 -19.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 30.2%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.9 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob71.4%

H 64% / xG 3.9-2.1 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 71%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–2 5.4%

#2 4–2 5.3%

#3 3–1 5.3%

#4 4–1 5.1%

#5 2–2 4.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlantis3.9

Reipas2.1

COMBINED 5.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.9% · O3.5 PROB 69.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLANTIS · PPG 2.14

REIPAS · PPG 0.43

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.80 for Home, form 2.14 vs 0.43 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Atlantis (H) 63.9%

ODDS 1.89 · IMPLIED 52.9% EV +20.8%

Draw 15.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -20.9%

Reipas (A) 20.1%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -25.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlantis face Reipas in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlantis a 64% chance, the draw 16% and Reipas 20%, so Atlantis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.9 for Atlantis and 2.1 for Reipas (5.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-2. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 71% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlantis are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 0.43 for Reipas. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +0.2%.

Atlantis vs Reipas Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Match Preview & Prediction

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