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PEPO vs MyPa Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Group A ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 16:00

PEPO

PPG 2.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

MyPa

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-13.5%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.6%1-18.2%1-23.5%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.2%2-19.6%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.7%3-17.5%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.8%4+-17.6%4+-23.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.5% 74.6% 1.34 -14.9%

Draw 20.4% 20.0% 5.00 +1.2%

Away win 16.1% 17.9% 5.60 -5.9%

Over 2.5 63.7% 85.5% 1.17 -25.5%

Over 3.5 42.4% 66.7% 1.50 -36.4%

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 62.4% — — —

Away O1.5 21.3% 44.4% 2.25 -31.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 30.2%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 64% / xG 2.3-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–1 8.2%

#4 3–0 8.7%

#5 1–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PEPO2.3

MyPa0.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 42.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PEPO · PPG 2.43

MYPA · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.48 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

PEPO (H) 63.5%

ODDS 1.34 · IMPLIED 74.6% EV -14.9%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +1.2%

MyPa (A) 16.1%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV -5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

PEPO face MyPa in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PEPO a 64% chance, the draw 20% and MyPa 16%, so PEPO are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for PEPO and 0.9 for MyPa (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PEPO are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 1.00 for MyPa.

PEPO vs MyPa Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Match Preview & Prediction

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