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Union Plaani vs PEPO Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Group A ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 16:00

Union Plaani

PPG 0.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

PEPO

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 67.8% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-16.2%0-26.9%0-35.1%0-4+4.8%1 1-03.8%1-18.4%1-29.3%1-36.9%1-4+6.5%2 2-02.5%2-15.7%2-26.3%2-34.7%2-4+4.4%3 3-01.1%3-12.6%3-22.9%3-32.1%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.2%4+-21.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.9% 25.0% 4.00 +9.4%

Draw 21.5% 22.2% 4.50 -1.9%

Away win 49.7% 63.7% 1.57 -22.0%

Over 2.5 67.0% 76.9% 1.30 -12.9%

Over 3.5 44.8% 57.8% 1.73 -22.5%

BTTS 63.5% 71.4% 1.40 -11.1%

Home O1.5 38.3% 44.4% 2.25 -13.8%

Away O1.5 67.8% 73.5% 1.36 -7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 81%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 30.2%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob63.5%

A 50% / xG 1.4-2.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 1–3 6.9%

#4 0–2 6.9%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Plaani1.4

PEPO2.2

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION PLAANI · PPG 0.57

PEPO · PPG 1.14

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.88 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Union Plaani (H) 28.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +9.4%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -1.9%

PEPO (A) 49.7%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -22.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Plaani face PEPO in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Plaani a 29% chance, the draw 22% and PEPO 50%, so PEPO are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Union Plaani and 2.2 for PEPO (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Plaani are averaging 0.57 points per game versus 1.14 for PEPO. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +16.8%.

Union Plaani vs PEPO Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Match Preview & Prediction

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