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Reipas vs PPJ Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Group A ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 15:00

Reipas

PPG 2.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

PPJ

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 80.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-14.2%0-23.4%0-31.8%0-4+1.0%1 1-05.5%1-18.6%1-26.8%1-33.6%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.5%2-18.8%2-27.0%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.8%3-16.0%3-24.7%3-32.5%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-14.8%4+-23.8%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 52.9% 1.89 -6.3%

Draw 22.2% 25.6% 3.90 -8.1%

Away win 28.2% 33.9% 2.95 -10.1%

Over 2.5 67.0% 80.6% 1.24 -16.9%

Over 3.5 44.8% 60.2% 1.66 -25.6%

BTTS 63.5% 76.9% 1.30 -17.4%

Home O1.5 55.8% 69.0% 1.45 -19.1%

Away O1.5 48.0% 54.6% 1.83 -12.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 30.2%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.5%

H 50% / xG 2.0-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 1–2 6.8%

#5 3–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Reipas2.0

PPJ1.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

REIPAS · PPG 2.43

PPJ · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Reipas (H) 49.6%

ODDS 1.89 · IMPLIED 52.9% EV -6.3%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -8.1%

PPJ (A) 28.2%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Reipas face PPJ in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Reipas a 50% chance, the draw 22% and PPJ 28%, so Reipas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Reipas and 1.6 for PPJ (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Reipas are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 1.71 for PPJ.

Reipas vs PPJ Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Match Preview & Prediction

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