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Reipas vs MyPa Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Group A ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 16:00

Reipas

PPG 2.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

MyPa

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-12.6%0-21.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.1%1-16.9%1-23.9%1-31.4%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.1%2-19.1%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-07.1%3-18.0%3-24.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-08.9%4+-110.0%4+-25.6%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.9% 75.2% 1.33 -15.0%

Draw 17.5% 20.0% 5.00 -7.5%

Away win 18.6% 16.7% 6.00 +7.0%

Over 2.5 67.0% 83.3% 1.20 -19.6%

Over 3.5 44.5% 66.7% 1.50 -33.3%

BTTS 62.5% 73.5% 1.36 -15.0%

Home O1.5 63.3% 83.3% 1.20 -24.0%

Away O1.5 36.4% 40.0% 2.50 -9.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 81%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 24.0%

Bet Hit 88%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.5%

H 64% / xG 2.6-1.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.1%

#2 2–0 8.1%

#3 3–1 8.0%

#4 1–1 6.9%

#5 3–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Reipas2.6

MyPa1.1

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

REIPAS · PPG 2.33

MYPA · PPG 1.17

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.52 for Home, form 2.33 vs 1.17 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Reipas (H) 63.9%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -15.0%

Draw 17.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -7.5%

MyPa (A) 18.6%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Reipas face MyPa in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Reipas a 64% chance, the draw 18% and MyPa 19%, so Reipas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Reipas and 1.1 for MyPa (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Reipas are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.17 for MyPa. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +13.9%.

Reipas vs MyPa Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko A

Match Preview & Prediction

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