Today / South Korea - K League 2 / Jeonnam Dragons vs Paju Citizen

Jeonnam Dragons vs Paju Citizen Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 10:30

Jeonnam Dragons

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Paju Citizen

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-111.4%0-26.8%0-32.7%0-4+1.0%1 1-011.1%1-113.2%1-27.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.4%2-17.6%2-24.5%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.5%3-12.9%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.7% 47.6% 2.10 -20.8%

Draw 27.9% 29.4% 3.40 -3.1%

Away win 34.4% 31.3% 3.20 +10.1%

Over 2.5 50.4% 55.6% 1.80 -9.3%

Over 3.5 28.9% 33.3% 3.00 -8.0%

BTTS 52.6% 60.6% 1.65 -13.2%

Home O1.5 32.6% 50.0% 2.00 -34.8%

Away O1.5 36.5% 37.7% 2.65 -3.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 26%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -16.5%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.6%

A 34% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 9.6%

#3 0–1 11.4%

#4 1–0 11.1%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jeonnam Dragons1.2

Paju Citizen1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

JEONNAM DRAGONS · PPG 1.00

PAJU CITIZEN · PPG 1.22

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.03, combined xG 2.35 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Jeonnam Dragons (H) 37.7%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -20.8%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -3.1%

Paju Citizen (A) 34.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jeonnam Dragons face Paju Citizen in South Korea - K League 2 on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jeonnam Dragons a 38% chance, the draw 28% and Paju Citizen 34%, so Jeonnam Dragons are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Jeonnam Dragons and 1.2 for Paju Citizen (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jeonnam Dragons are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.22 for Paju Citizen. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +2.8%.

Jeonnam Dragons vs Paju Citizen Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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