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Port Vale vs Wigan Athletic Prediction— England - League One

Regular Season - 44 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 14:00

Port Vale

PPG 0.95 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Wigan Athletic

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.8%0-112.2%0-26.3%0-32.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.0%1-113.5%1-27.0%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.2%2-17.4%2-23.8%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.6%3-12.7%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.9% 29.0% 3.45 +27.3%

Draw 29.6% 31.3% 3.20 -5.3%

Away win 33.4% 46.7% 2.14 -28.5%

Over 2.5 36.0% 44.4% 2.25 -19.0%

Over 3.5 16.8% 23.8% 4.20 -29.4%

BTTS 43.0% 52.6% 1.90 -18.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob43.0%

D 30% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 1–0 13.0%

#3 0–1 12.2%

#4 0–0✓ 11.8%

#5 2–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Port Vale1.1

Wigan Athletic1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.0% · O3.5 PROB 16.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PORT VALE · PPG 0.95

WIGAN ATHLETIC · PPG 0.86

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.95), Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Port Vale (H) 36.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +27.3%

Draw 29.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -5.3%

Wigan Athletic (A) 33.4%

ODDS 2.14 · IMPLIED 46.7% EV -28.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Port Vale face Wigan Athletic in England - League One on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Port Vale a 37% chance, the draw 30% and Wigan Athletic 33%, so Port Vale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Port Vale and 1.0 for Wigan Athletic (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Port Vale are averaging 0.95 points per game versus 0.86 for Wigan Athletic. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +27.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Port Vale vs Wigan Athletic Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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