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Independiente Res. vs San Martín San Juan Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, August 5, 2026, 18:00

Independiente Res.

PPG 2.27 · HOME

UPCOMING

San Martín San Juan Res.

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-10.2%0-20.1%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-01.6%1-11.0%1-20.3%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-04.1%2-12.5%2-20.8%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-07.0%3-14.4%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-040.6%4+-125.4%4+-27.9%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 80.1% — — —

Draw 11.7% — — —

Away win 8.3% — — —

Over 2.5 80.9% — — —

Over 3.5 63.5% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 78.3% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)5.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob53.1%

H 80% / xG 5.2-0.6 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 5–0 9.4%

#2 4–0 9.1%

#3 3–0 7.0%

#4 5–1 5.9%

#5 4–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente Res.5.2

San Martín San Juan Res.0.6

COMBINED 5.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.9% · O3.5 PROB 63.5%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE RES. · PPG 2.27

SAN MARTÍN SAN JUAN RES. · PPG 0.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +4.55 for Home, form 2.27 vs 0.20 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Independiente Res. (H) 80.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 11.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

San Martín San Juan Res. (A) 8.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente Res. face San Martín San Juan Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Wednesday, August 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente Res. a 80% chance, the draw 12% and San Martín San Juan Res. 8%, so Independiente Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 5.2 for Independiente Res. and 0.6 for San Martín San Juan Res. (5.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 5-0. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente Res. are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 0.20 for San Martín San Juan Res..

Independiente Res. vs San Martín San Juan Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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