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Gimnasia Mendoza 2 vs River Plate Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 18:00

Gimnasia Mendoza 2

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

River Plate Res.

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.8%0-115.0%0-27.1%0-32.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-014.1%1-113.4%1-26.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.3%2-16.0%2-22.9%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.9%3-11.8%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.6% — — —

Draw 32.0% — — —

Away win 30.4% — — —

Over 2.5 35.9% — — —

Over 3.5 17.6% — — —

BTTS 45.4% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 27.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob45.4%

D 32% / xG 0.9-0.9 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.8%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 0–1 15.0%

#4 1–0 14.1%

#5 0–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimnasia Mendoza 20.9

River Plate Res.0.9

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.9% · O3.5 PROB 17.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMNASIA MENDOZA 2 · PPG 1.40

RIVER PLATE RES. · PPG 1.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.05, combined xG 1.84 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gimnasia Mendoza 2 (H) 37.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

River Plate Res. (A) 30.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia Mendoza 2 face River Plate Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia Mendoza 2 a 38% chance, the draw 32% and River Plate Res. 30%, so Gimnasia Mendoza 2 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Gimnasia Mendoza 2 and 0.9 for River Plate Res. (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia Mendoza 2 are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.36 for River Plate Res..

Gimnasia Mendoza 2 vs River Plate Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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