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Ferro 2 vs Deportivo Riestra Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, August 5, 2026, 18:00

Ferro 2

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Riestra Res.

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.44, combined xG 2.38 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-19.0%0-24.4%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.0%1-112.6%1-26.1%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.2%2-18.9%2-24.3%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.3%3-14.2%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.1% — — —

Draw 27.0% — — —

Away win 23.9% — — —

Over 2.5 50.3% — — —

Over 3.5 28.8% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 28.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 49% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 13.0%

#3 0–0 9.2%

#4 2–0 9.2%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ferro 21.4

Deportivo Riestra Res.1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FERRO 2 · PPG 1.80

DEPORTIVO RIESTRA RES. · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.44, combined xG 2.38 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ferro 2 (H) 49.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Deportivo Riestra Res. (A) 23.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ferro 2 face Deportivo Riestra Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Wednesday, August 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ferro 2 a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Deportivo Riestra Res. 24%, so Ferro 2 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Ferro 2 and 1.0 for Deportivo Riestra Res. (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ferro 2 are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.80 for Deportivo Riestra Res..

Ferro 2 vs Deportivo Riestra Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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