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Atlético Tucumán Res. vs Sarmiento Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 18:00

Atlético Tucumán Res.

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sarmiento Res.

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.2% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-16.8%0-23.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.4%1-111.5%1-25.3%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.4%2-19.7%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.8%3-15.4%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 50.0% 2.00 +5.8%

Draw 24.3% 33.3% 3.00 -16.3%

Away win 22.8% 29.4% 3.40 -13.5%

Over 2.5 52.2% 50.0% 2.00 +4.4%

Over 3.5 29.7% 28.6% 3.50 +2.4%

BTTS 53.1% 54.6% 1.83 -2.8%

Home O1.5 49.2% 48.3% 2.07 +1.8%

Away O1.5 27.0% 29.9% 3.34 -5.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–0 12.4%

#3 2–0 10.4%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlético Tucumán Res.1.7

Sarmiento Res.0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLÉTICO TUCUMÁN RES. · PPG 1.80

SARMIENTO RES. · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.75 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atlético Tucumán Res. (H) 52.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +5.8%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -16.3%

Sarmiento Res. (A) 22.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -13.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlético Tucumán Res. face Sarmiento Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlético Tucumán Res. a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Sarmiento Res. 23%, so Atlético Tucumán Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Atlético Tucumán Res. and 0.9 for Sarmiento Res. (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlético Tucumán Res. are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.40 for Sarmiento Res.. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.4%.

Atlético Tucumán Res. vs Sarmiento Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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