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Defensa y Justicia Res. vs Newell's Old Boys Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, August 5, 2026, 18:00

Defensa y Justicia Res.

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Newell's Old Boys Res.

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-15.0%0-22.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.3%1-19.9%1-25.3%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.2%3-16.6%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-15.3%4+-22.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.1% — — —

Draw 22.5% — — —

Away win 21.4% — — —

Over 2.5 60.4% — — —

Over 3.5 37.4% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 55.4% — — —

Away O1.5 35.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 56% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensa y Justicia Res.2.0

Newell's Old Boys Res.1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSA Y JUSTICIA RES. · PPG 2.00

NEWELL'S OLD BOYS RES. · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.93 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Defensa y Justicia Res. (H) 56.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Newell's Old Boys Res. (A) 21.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensa y Justicia Res. face Newell's Old Boys Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Wednesday, August 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensa y Justicia Res. a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Newell's Old Boys Res. 21%, so Defensa y Justicia Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Defensa y Justicia Res. and 1.1 for Newell's Old Boys Res. (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensa y Justicia Res. are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Newell's Old Boys Res..

Defensa y Justicia Res. vs Newell's Old Boys Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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