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Quilmes 2 vs Colón Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, August 5, 2026, 18:00

Quilmes 2

PPG 2.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

Colón Res.

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.13 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-15.9%0-21.3%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-020.7%1-19.4%1-22.1%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.4%2-17.4%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-08.6%3-13.9%3-20.9%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-12.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.6% — — —

Draw 21.7% — — —

Away win 14.6% — — —

Over 2.5 44.4% — — —

Over 3.5 23.4% — — —

BTTS 45.3% — — —

Home O1.5 47.5% — — —

Away O1.5 15.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob45.3%

H 64% / xG 1.6-0.5 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.7%

#2 2–0 16.4%

#3 0–0 13.0%

#4 1–1 9.4%

#5 3–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Quilmes 21.6

Colón Res.0.5

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 23.4%

Form & verdict PPG

QUILMES 2 · PPG 2.30

COLÓN RES. · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.13 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Quilmes 2 (H) 63.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Colón Res. (A) 14.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Quilmes 2 face Colón Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Wednesday, August 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Quilmes 2 a 64% chance, the draw 22% and Colón Res. 15%, so Quilmes 2 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Quilmes 2 and 0.5 for Colón Res. (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Quilmes 2 are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 0.50 for Colón Res..

Quilmes 2 vs Colón Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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