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Metalourg vs Lochin Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Regular Season - 12 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 14:30

Metalourg

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lochin

PPG 2.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-17.7%0-24.5%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.3%1-111.9%1-26.9%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.3%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.1%3-14.8%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.6%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% — — —

Draw 24.7% — — —

Away win 26.0% — — —

Over 2.5 53.4% — — —

Over 3.5 32.2% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 45.6% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.3%

#4 0–0 6.6%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Metalourg1.6

Lochin1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

METALOURG · PPG 2.00

LOCHIN · PPG 2.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Metalourg (H) 49.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Lochin (A) 26.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Metalourg face Lochin in Uzbekistan - Pro League A on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Metalourg a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Lochin 26%, so Metalourg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Metalourg and 1.2 for Lochin (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Metalourg are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.17 for Lochin.

Metalourg vs Lochin Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Match Preview & Prediction

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