Today / Uzbekistan - Pro League A / FarDu vs Qiziriq

FarDu vs Qiziriq Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Matchday 13 ·Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 12:30

FarDu

PPG 2.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Qiziriq

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.63 for Home, form 2.20 vs 0.57 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-13.0%0-21.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.7%1-17.5%1-23.3%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.8%2-19.4%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.0%3-17.8%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-010.1%4+-18.8%4+-23.8%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.1% — — —

Draw 19.1% — — —

Away win 17.8% — — —

Over 2.5 63.6% — — —

Over 3.5 40.6% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 64.0% — — —

Away O1.5 22.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.4%

H 63% / xG 2.5-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 3–0 9.0%

#4 1–1 7.5%

#5 3–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FarDu2.5

Qiziriq0.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FARDU · PPG 2.20

QIZIRIQ · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.63 for Home, form 2.20 vs 0.57 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

FarDu (H) 63.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Qiziriq (A) 17.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

FarDu face Qiziriq in Uzbekistan - Pro League A on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FarDu a 63% chance, the draw 19% and Qiziriq 18%, so FarDu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for FarDu and 0.9 for Qiziriq (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FarDu are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 0.57 for Qiziriq.

FarDu vs Qiziriq Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Uzbekistan - Pro League A Predictions