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BSS Sporting vs Railway Prediction— India - Calcutta Premier Division

Regular season ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 09:30

BSS Sporting

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Railway

PPG 0.59 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.4% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-16.3%0-23.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.4%1-111.1%1-25.4%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.8%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.9%3-15.8%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.8%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 48.8% 2.05 +9.1%

Draw 24.6% 32.3% 3.10 -14.2%

Away win 22.2% 31.3% 3.20 -17.4%

Over 2.5 53.4% 48.8% 2.05 +9.5%

Over 3.5 32.2% 25.0% 4.00 +28.8%

BTTS 52.6% 52.4% 1.91 +0.5%

Home O1.5 49.4% 42.6% 2.35 +16.1%

Away O1.5 28.4% 31.4% 3.18 -5.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 11.4%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BSS Sporting1.8

Railway1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BSS SPORTING · PPG 1.67

RAILWAY · PPG 0.59

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

BSS Sporting (H) 53.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +9.1%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.2%

Railway (A) 22.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -17.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

BSS Sporting face Railway in India - Calcutta Premier Division on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BSS Sporting a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Railway 22%, so BSS Sporting are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for BSS Sporting and 1.0 for Railway (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BSS Sporting are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.59 for Railway. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +30.9%.

BSS Sporting vs Railway Prediction— India - Calcutta Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More India - Calcutta Premier Division Predictions