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Queanbeyan City vs Tuggeranong United Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Matchday 16 ·Wednesday, August 5, 2026, 09:30

Queanbeyan City

PPG 2.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tuggeranong United

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.06 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-11.5%0-21.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-02.3%1-14.4%1-24.2%1-32.6%1-4+1.9%2 2-03.4%2-16.5%2-26.1%2-33.9%2-4+2.8%3 3-03.4%3-16.4%3-26.0%3-33.8%3-4+2.8%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-19.7%4+-29.2%4+-35.8%4+-4+4.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% — — —

Draw 20.8% — — —

Away win 25.8% — — —

Over 2.5 74.4% — — —

Over 3.5 54.1% — — —

BTTS 69.6% — — —

Home O1.5 78.3% — — —

Away O1.5 54.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 6.9%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 68%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob69.6%

H 53% / xG 3.0-1.9 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 6.5%

#2 3–1 6.4%

#3 2–2 6.1%

#4 3–2 6.0%

#5 1–1 4.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Queanbeyan City3.0

Tuggeranong United1.9

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.4% · O3.5 PROB 54.1%

Form & verdict PPG

QUEANBEYAN CITY · PPG 2.25

TUGGERANONG UNITED · PPG 1.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.06 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Queanbeyan City (H) 53.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tuggeranong United (A) 25.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Queanbeyan City face Tuggeranong United in Australia - NPL Capital Territory on Wednesday, August 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Queanbeyan City a 53% chance, the draw 21% and Tuggeranong United 26%, so Queanbeyan City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Queanbeyan City and 1.9 for Tuggeranong United (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Queanbeyan City are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.88 for Tuggeranong United.

Queanbeyan City vs Tuggeranong United Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Match Preview & Prediction

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