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Canberra Olympic vs Tuggeranong United Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 04:30

Canberra Olympic

PPG 1.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tuggeranong United

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 80.6% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-11.4%0-21.9%0-31.8%0-4+2.4%1 1-01.3%1-13.5%1-24.8%1-34.5%1-4+6.1%2 2-01.6%2-14.4%2-26.1%2-35.7%2-4+7.7%3 3-01.3%3-13.7%3-25.2%3-34.8%3-4+6.5%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-14.3%4+-26.0%4+-35.5%4+-4+7.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.7% 42.0% 2.38 -7.9%

Draw 20.8% 24.4% 4.10 -8.8%

Away win 40.5% 44.4% 2.25 -8.9%

Over 2.5 80.6% 78.1% 1.28 +3.2%

Over 3.5 60.3% 59.5% 1.68 +1.3%

BTTS 70.3% 80.6% 1.24 -12.8%

Home O1.5 64.0% 63.3% 1.58 +1.1%

Away O1.5 67.8% 63.7% 1.57 +6.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 5.3%

Bet Hit 77%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob70.3%

A 40% / xG 2.5-2.8 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.1%

#2 2–3 5.7%

#3 3–2 5.2%

#4 1–2 4.8%

#5 3–3 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Canberra Olympic2.5

Tuggeranong United2.8

COMBINED 5.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.6% · O3.5 PROB 60.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CANBERRA OLYMPIC · PPG 1.14

TUGGERANONG UNITED · PPG 1.71

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Canberra Olympic (H) 38.7%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -7.9%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -8.8%

Tuggeranong United (A) 40.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -8.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Canberra Olympic face Tuggeranong United in Australia - NPL Capital Territory on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Canberra Olympic a 39% chance, the draw 21% and Tuggeranong United 41%, so Tuggeranong United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Canberra Olympic and 2.8 for Tuggeranong United (5.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Canberra Olympic are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.71 for Tuggeranong United. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +8.3%.

Canberra Olympic vs Tuggeranong United Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Match Preview & Prediction

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