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Canberra FC vs Canberra Juventus Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Regular Season - 19 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 05:00

Canberra FC

PPG 2.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Canberra Juventus

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-12.4%0-21.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-05.1%1-16.4%1-24.1%1-31.7%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.9%2-18.7%2-25.5%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-06.2%3-17.9%3-25.0%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-08.2%4+-110.3%4+-26.5%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.9% 76.9% 1.30 -24.7%

Draw 21.0% 19.0% 5.25 +6.2%

Away win 21.1% 16.0% 6.25 +19.1%

Over 2.5 67.0% 82.0% 1.22 -18.3%

Over 3.5 44.8% 64.9% 1.54 -31.0%

BTTS 63.1% 71.4% 1.40 -11.7%

Home O1.5 64.0% 87.7% 1.14 -27.0%

Away O1.5 36.6% 35.7% 2.80 +2.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 5.3%

Bet Hit 77%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.1%

H 58% / xG 2.7-1.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.7%

#2 3–1 7.9%

#3 1–1 6.4%

#4 2–0 6.9%

#5 3–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Canberra FC2.7

Canberra Juventus1.3

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CANBERRA FC · PPG 2.57

CANBERRA JUVENTUS · PPG 2.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.45 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Canberra FC (H) 57.9%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -24.7%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +6.2%

Canberra Juventus (A) 21.1%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +19.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Canberra FC face Canberra Juventus in Australia - NPL Capital Territory on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Canberra FC a 58% chance, the draw 21% and Canberra Juventus 21%, so Canberra FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Canberra FC and 1.3 for Canberra Juventus (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Canberra FC are averaging 2.57 points per game versus 2.25 for Canberra Juventus. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +39.4%.

Canberra FC vs Canberra Juventus Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Match Preview & Prediction

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