Today / Cerro vs Montevideo City

Cerro vs Montevideo City Prediction

Sunday, April 19, 2026

Cerro

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Montevideo City

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.8%0-120.4%0-211.1%0-34.0%0-4+1.4%1 1-011.0%1-112.0%1-26.5%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-03.2%2-13.5%2-21.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-00.6%3-10.7%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 19.8% — — —

Draw 32.8% — — —

Away win 47.4% — — —

Over 2.5 23.5% — — —

Over 3.5 8.9% — — —

BTTS 29.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob29.3%

A 47% / xG 0.6-1.1 / U2.5 24% / NoBTTS 29%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 20.4%

#2 0–0 18.8%

#3 1–1✓ 12.0%

#4 0–2 11.1%

#5 1–0 11.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cerro0.6

Montevideo City1.1

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 23.5% · O3.5 PROB 8.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CERRO · PPG 1.33

MONTEVIDEO CITY · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Cerro (H) 19.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Montevideo City (A) 47.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Cerro face Montevideo City on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cerro a 20% chance, the draw 33% and Montevideo City 47%, so Montevideo City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Cerro and 1.1 for Montevideo City (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 24% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 29% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cerro are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.33 for Montevideo City. This match finished 1-1.

Cerro vs Montevideo City Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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