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Ilves II vs Musa Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B ·Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 16:00

Ilves II

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Musa

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 6.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 80.6% vs bookmaker-implied 90.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.2%0-10.2%0-20.1%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-01.0%1-11.2%1-20.7%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-02.4%2-13.0%2-21.8%2-30.8%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.1%3-15.0%3-23.1%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-021.6%4+-126.5%4+-216.3%4+-36.7%4+-4+2.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.3% 88.5% 1.13 -14.9%

Draw 16.0% 14.3% 7.00 +7.2%

Away win 8.7% 9.5% 10.50 -5.2%

Over 2.5 80.6% 90.9% 1.10 -11.3%

Over 3.5 69.0% 74.6% 1.34 -7.5%

BTTS 63.5% 70.4% 1.42 -9.8%

Home O1.5 77.8% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)5.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.5%

H 75% / xG 5.0-1.2 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 5–1 6.3%

#2 4–1 6.3%

#3 5–0 5.1%

#4 4–0 5.1%

#5 3–1 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ilves II5.0

Musa1.2

COMBINED 6.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.6% · O3.5 PROB 69.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ILVES II · PPG 2.00

MUSA · PPG 0.57

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +3.80 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.57 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Ilves II (H) 75.3%

ODDS 1.13 · IMPLIED 88.5% EV -14.9%

Draw 16.0%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +7.2%

Musa (A) 8.7%

ODDS 10.50 · IMPLIED 9.5% EV -5.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ilves II face Musa in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ilves II a 75% chance, the draw 16% and Musa 9%, so Ilves II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 5.0 for Ilves II and 1.2 for Musa (6.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 5-1. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ilves II are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.57 for Musa.

Ilves II vs Musa Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

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