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ÅIFK vs HJS Akatemia Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 15:30

ÅIFK

PPG 2.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

HJS Akatemia

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-14.5%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.6%1-19.5%1-24.7%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.1%3-16.9%3-23.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-15.9%4+-22.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% 61.7% 1.62 -9.3%

Draw 22.3% 24.4% 4.10 -5.1%

Away win 21.8% 25.6% 3.90 -9.0%

Over 2.5 61.2% 71.4% 1.40 -14.3%

Over 3.5 37.3% 52.4% 1.91 -28.8%

BTTS 55.4% 69.4% 1.44 -20.2%

Home O1.5 60.1% 69.4% 1.44 -13.5%

Away O1.5 28.5% 40.0% 2.50 -17.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 56% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 3–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ÅIFK2.1

HJS Akatemia1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ÅIFK · PPG 2.29

HJS AKATEMIA · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.11 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

ÅIFK (H) 56.0%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -9.3%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -5.1%

HJS Akatemia (A) 21.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -9.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

ÅIFK face HJS Akatemia in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ÅIFK a 56% chance, the draw 22% and HJS Akatemia 22%, so ÅIFK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for ÅIFK and 1.0 for HJS Akatemia (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ÅIFK are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 1.71 for HJS Akatemia.

ÅIFK vs HJS Akatemia Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

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