Today / Finland - Kakkonen Group B / EPS vs Honka

EPS vs Honka Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 14:00

EPS

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Honka

PPG 2.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 67.8% vs bookmaker-implied 77.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-16.9%0-28.0%0-36.2%0-4+6.2%1 1-03.6%1-18.3%1-29.6%1-37.4%1-4+7.4%2 2-02.1%2-14.9%2-25.7%2-34.4%2-4+4.4%3 3-00.8%3-12.0%3-22.3%3-31.7%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.9% 16.4% 6.10 +23.8%

Draw 21.7% 21.3% 4.70 +1.2%

Away win 55.4% 74.6% 1.34 -25.8%

Over 2.5 64.1% 75.8% 1.32 -15.4%

Over 3.5 42.8% 54.6% 1.83 -21.7%

BTTS 62.1% 67.6% 1.48 -8.1%

Home O1.5 32.8% 33.3% 3.00 -1.6%

Away O1.5 67.8% 77.5% 1.29 -12.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob62.1%

A 55% / xG 1.2-2.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.6%

#2 1–1 8.3%

#3 0–2 8.0%

#4 1–3 7.4%

#5 0–3 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

EPS1.2

Honka2.3

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.8%

Form & verdict PPG

EPS · PPG 1.57

HONKA · PPG 2.71

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.13 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

EPS (H) 22.9%

ODDS 6.10 · IMPLIED 16.4% EV +23.8%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV +1.2%

Honka (A) 55.4%

ODDS 1.34 · IMPLIED 74.6% EV -25.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

EPS face Honka in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives EPS a 23% chance, the draw 22% and Honka 55%, so Honka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for EPS and 2.3 for Honka (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, EPS are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 2.71 for Honka. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +24.7%.

EPS vs Honka Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Kakkonen Group B Predictions