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FarDu vs Lochin Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 12:30

FarDu

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lochin

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-110.9%0-210.8%0-37.2%0-4+5.7%1 1-05.0%1-19.9%1-29.9%1-36.6%1-4+5.2%2 2-02.3%2-14.5%2-24.5%2-33.0%2-4+2.4%3 3-00.7%3-11.4%3-21.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.8% — — —

Draw 21.9% — — —

Away win 56.3% — — —

Over 2.5 60.2% — — —

Over 3.5 36.4% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 33.3% — — —

Away O1.5 49.0% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob55.4%

A 56% / xG 0.9-2.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 0–2 10.8%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1 10.9%

#5 0–3 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FarDu0.9

Lochin2.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FARDU · PPG 2.00

LOCHIN · PPG 2.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.08 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

FarDu (H) 21.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Lochin (A) 56.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

FarDu face Lochin in Uzbekistan - Pro League A on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FarDu a 22% chance, the draw 22% and Lochin 56%, so Lochin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for FarDu and 2.0 for Lochin (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FarDu are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.60 for Lochin.

FarDu vs Lochin Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Match Preview & Prediction

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