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Qiziriq vs Kattaqurgon Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Regular Season - 12 ·Thursday, July 30, 2026, 15:00

Qiziriq

PPG 0.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kattaqurgon

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

xG gap -1.03 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-119.7%0-215.2%0-37.9%0-4+4.3%1 1-06.5%1-110.1%1-27.8%1-34.0%1-4+2.2%2 2-01.7%2-12.6%2-22.0%2-31.0%2-4+0.6%3 3-00.3%3-10.4%3-20.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.9% — — —

Draw 26.1% — — —

Away win 60.0% — — —

Over 2.5 44.0% — — —

Over 3.5 22.8% — — —

BTTS 45.4% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 48.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob45.4%

A 60% / xG 0.5-1.5 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 19.7%

#2 0–2 15.2%

#3 0–0 12.7%

#4 1–1 10.1%

#5 0–3 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qiziriq0.5

Kattaqurgon1.5

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

QIZIRIQ · PPG 0.00

KATTAQURGON · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.03 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Qiziriq (H) 13.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Kattaqurgon (A) 60.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Qiziriq face Kattaqurgon in Uzbekistan - Pro League A on Thursday, July 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qiziriq a 14% chance, the draw 26% and Kattaqurgon 60%, so Kattaqurgon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Qiziriq and 1.5 for Kattaqurgon (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qiziriq are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 1.83 for Kattaqurgon.

Qiziriq vs Kattaqurgon Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Match Preview & Prediction

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