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Gremio W vs America Mineiro W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 19:00

Gremio W

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

America Mineiro W

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 71.8% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-12.3%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.6%1-16.0%1-21.6%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.0%2-17.8%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.9%3-16.7%3-21.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-015.4%4+-18.1%4+-22.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.8% 84.7% 1.18 -15.3%

Draw 18.6% 18.5% 5.40 +0.3%

Away win 9.6% 7.1% 14.00 +20.6%

Over 2.5 63.0% 65.4% 1.53 -3.6%

Over 3.5 39.6% 43.5% 2.30 -8.9%

BTTS 48.7% 47.6% 2.10 +2.3%

Home O1.5 64.0% 78.1% 1.28 -18.1%

Away O1.5 17.4% 16.7% 6.00 +2.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -51.5%

Bet Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.7%

H 72% / xG 2.6-0.5 / O2.5 63% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.0%

#2 3–0 12.9%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 4–0 8.3%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gremio W2.6

America Mineiro W0.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GREMIO W · PPG 1.20

AMERICA MINEIRO W · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.06 for Home, form 1.20 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Gremio W (H) 71.8%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -15.3%

Draw 18.6%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +0.3%

America Mineiro W (A) 9.6%

ODDS 14.00 · IMPLIED 7.1% EV +20.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gremio W face America Mineiro W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gremio W a 72% chance, the draw 19% and America Mineiro W 10%, so Gremio W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Gremio W and 0.5 for America Mineiro W (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gremio W are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.50 for America Mineiro W. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +55.4%.

Gremio W vs America Mineiro W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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