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Ferroviaria W vs Bahia W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 21:00

Ferroviaria W

PPG 2.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bahia W

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.3% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+18.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-15.2%0-22.8%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.4%1-110.2%1-25.5%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.9%3-16.4%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-14.9%4+-22.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.9% 59.5% 1.68 -9.4%

Draw 22.4% 29.0% 3.45 -13.6%

Away win 23.7% 21.1% 4.75 +7.5%

Over 2.5 62.3% 52.6% 1.90 +18.4%

Over 3.5 39.5% 30.8% 3.25 +28.4%

BTTS 60.0% 55.6% 1.80 +8.0%

Home O1.5 53.6% 55.6% 1.80 -3.5%

Away O1.5 36.5% 28.2% 3.55 +29.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -51.5%

Bet Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.0%

H 54% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.1%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ferroviaria W1.9

Bahia W1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.3% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FERROVIARIA W · PPG 2.33

BAHIA W · PPG 1.60

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.86 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ferroviaria W (H) 53.9%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -9.4%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -13.6%

Bahia W (A) 23.7%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +7.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ferroviaria W face Bahia W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ferroviaria W a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Bahia W 24%, so Ferroviaria W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Ferroviaria W and 1.1 for Bahia W (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ferroviaria W are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.60 for Bahia W. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +51.7%.

Ferroviaria W vs Bahia W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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