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Plaza Colonia vs Miramar Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

2nd Phase - 12 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 23:30

Plaza Colonia

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Miramar

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.84 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-17.5%0-22.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.5%1-111.5%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.7%2-18.8%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.5%3-14.5%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-12.4%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.5% — — —

Draw 25.2% — — —

Away win 23.3% — — —

Over 2.5 45.7% — — —

Over 3.5 28.8% — — —

BTTS 48.7% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 20.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.7%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.5%

#2 1–1 11.5%

#3 2–0 12.7%

#4 0–0 10.7%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Plaza Colonia1.5

Miramar0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PLAZA COLONIA · PPG 1.75

MIRAMAR · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.84 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Plaza Colonia (H) 51.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Miramar (A) 23.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Plaza Colonia face Miramar in Uruguay - Segunda División on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Plaza Colonia a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Miramar 23%, so Plaza Colonia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Plaza Colonia and 0.7 for Miramar (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Plaza Colonia are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.25 for Miramar.

Plaza Colonia vs Miramar Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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