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Tacuarembo vs CA River Plate Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

2nd Phase - 12 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 19:00

Tacuarembo

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

CA River Plate

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.32 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-18.4%0-24.8%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.8%1-112.3%1-27.0%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.9%2-19.0%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.9%3-14.4%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.2%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% — — —

Draw 26.5% — — —

Away win 28.0% — — —

Over 2.5 50.4% — — —

Over 3.5 28.9% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–0 7.4%

#3 2–1 9.0%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tacuarembo1.5

CA River Plate1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TACUAREMBO · PPG 1.44

CA RIVER PLATE · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.32 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tacuarembo (H) 45.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

CA River Plate (A) 28.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Tacuarembo face CA River Plate in Uruguay - Segunda División on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tacuarembo a 46% chance, the draw 27% and CA River Plate 28%, so Tacuarembo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Tacuarembo and 1.1 for CA River Plate (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tacuarembo are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.89 for CA River Plate.

Tacuarembo vs CA River Plate Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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