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Colón vs Paysandu Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

2nd Phase - 11 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 13:00

Colón

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Paysandu

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.88 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-16.3%0-22.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.8%1-111.1%1-24.8%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.2%2-19.7%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.5%3-15.7%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-13.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% — — —

Draw 24.6% — — —

Away win 21.9% — — —

Over 2.5 50.4% — — —

Over 3.5 29.3% — — —

BTTS 52.3% — — —

Home O1.5 53.5% — — —

Away O1.5 23.0% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.3%

H 54% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–0 11.2%

#3 1–0 12.8%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colón1.8

Paysandu0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

COLÓN · PPG 1.38

PAYSANDU · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.88 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Colón (H) 53.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Paysandu (A) 21.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Colón face Paysandu in Uruguay - Segunda División on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colón a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Paysandu 22%, so Colón are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Colón and 0.9 for Paysandu (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colón are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.88 for Paysandu.

Colón vs Paysandu Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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