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Miramar vs La Luz Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

2nd Phase - 11 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 22:30

Miramar logo
Miramar
PPG 1.00 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
La Luz logo
La Luz
PPG 0.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.8%0-113.0%0-24.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-019.1%1-112.5%1-24.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.2%2-16.0%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.0%3-11.9%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 44.5%
Draw 30.8%
Away win 24.6%
Over 2.5 39.3%
Over 3.5 19.7%
BTTS 46.7%
Home O1.5 35.0%
Away O1.5 20.1%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.7%

H 44% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.8%
#2 1–0 19.1%
#3 1–1 12.5%
#4 0–1 13.0%
#5 2–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Miramar1.0
La Luz0.7

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MIRAMAR · PPG 1.00

LA LUZ · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...
45%
HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.31, combined xG 1.62 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Miramar (H) 44.5%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 30.8%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
La Luz (A) 24.6%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Miramar face La Luz in Uruguay - Segunda División on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Miramar a 45% chance, the draw 31% and La Luz 25%, so Miramar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Miramar and 0.7 for La Luz (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Miramar are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.75 for La Luz.

PredictVantage

Free daily football predictions across 240+ leagues. A Poisson-based model analyses team form, attack and defence strength, and live bookmaker odds to surface value bets — updated every day, graded every night.

18+ only. PredictVantage is for entertainment and informational purposes only. All predictions are model-generated and do not guarantee any outcome. Match dates and kick-off times come from third-party data and may change — confirm with official sources before betting. Gambling involves risk — never bet more than you can afford to lose. BeGambleAware.org