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Tacuarembo vs Plaza Colonia Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

2nd Phase - 11 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 16:00

Tacuarembo

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Plaza Colonia

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.6%0-115.8%0-27.1%0-32.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.8%1-113.3%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-06.2%2-15.6%2-22.5%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.7%3-11.6%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% — — —

Draw 31.2% — — —

Away win 33.6% — — —

Over 2.5 39.3% — — —

Over 3.5 19.7% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 33.3% — — —

Away O1.5 24.7% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.5%

D 31% / xG 0.8-0.9 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.6%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 0–1 15.8%

#4 1–0 14.8%

#5 0–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tacuarembo0.8

Plaza Colonia0.9

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TACUAREMBO · PPG 1.62

PLAZA COLONIA · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.06, combined xG 1.74 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tacuarembo (H) 35.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Plaza Colonia (A) 33.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Tacuarembo face Plaza Colonia in Uruguay - Segunda División on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tacuarembo a 35% chance, the draw 31% and Plaza Colonia 34%, so Tacuarembo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Tacuarembo and 0.9 for Plaza Colonia (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tacuarembo are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.38 for Plaza Colonia.

Tacuarembo vs Plaza Colonia Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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