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Fenix vs Atenas Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

2nd Phase - 11 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 15:00

Fenix

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atenas

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+27.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-15.2%0-22.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.4%1-110.2%1-25.0%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.2%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.6%3-16.5%3-23.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-14.9%4+-22.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.4% 50.0% 2.00 +12.8%

Draw 22.9% 31.3% 3.20 -16.0%

Away win 20.7% 30.3% 3.30 -19.0%

Over 2.5 60.7% 47.6% 2.10 +27.5%

Over 3.5 37.5% 28.6% 3.50 +31.3%

BTTS 55.4% 54.9% 1.82 +0.8%

Home O1.5 55.7% 45.7% 2.19 +22.0%

Away O1.5 29.2% 32.9% 3.04 -6.7%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 56% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–0 10.2%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 0–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fenix2.0

Atenas1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FENIX · PPG 2.00

ATENAS · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.97 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fenix (H) 56.4%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +12.8%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -16.0%

Atenas (A) 20.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -19.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fenix face Atenas in Uruguay - Segunda División on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fenix a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Atenas 21%, so Fenix are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Fenix and 1.0 for Atenas (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fenix are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Atenas. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +31.3%.

Fenix vs Atenas Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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