Today / Hatayspor vs Sakaryaspor

Hatayspor vs Sakaryaspor Prediction

Sunday, April 19, 2026

Hatayspor

PPG 0.41 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Sakaryaspor

PPG 0.65 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-16.9%0-28.3%0-36.7%0-4+7.1%1 1-03.3%1-17.9%1-29.5%1-37.6%1-4+8.1%2 2-01.9%2-14.5%2-25.4%2-34.4%2-4+4.6%3 3-00.7%3-11.7%3-22.1%3-31.7%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.6% — — —

Draw 18.2% — — —

Away win 65.2% — — —

Over 2.5 68.8% — — —

Over 3.5 47.4% — — —

BTTS 62.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob62.0%

A 65% / xG 1.1-2.4 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.5%

#2 0–2 8.3%

#3 1–1 7.9%

#4 1–3 7.6%

#5 0–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hatayspor1.1

Sakaryaspor2.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.8% · O3.5 PROB 47.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HATAYSPOR · PPG 0.41

SAKARYASPOR · PPG 0.65

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.41), Away POOR (0.65)

Win probability 1X2

Hatayspor (H) 16.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 18.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sakaryaspor (A) 65.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Hatayspor face Sakaryaspor on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hatayspor a 17% chance, the draw 18% and Sakaryaspor 65%, so Sakaryaspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Hatayspor and 2.4 for Sakaryaspor (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hatayspor are averaging 0.41 points per game versus 0.65 for Sakaryaspor. This match finished 0-0.

Hatayspor vs Sakaryaspor Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

More Football Predictions