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Lerumo Lions vs Baroka Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Regular Season - 25 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Lerumo Lions

PPG 1.25 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Baroka

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 75.3% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+43.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-13.1%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.6%1-17.5%1-22.7%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.8%2-19.1%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.4%3-17.3%3-22.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-011.1%4+-17.9%4+-22.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.3% 52.6% 1.90 +43.1%

Draw 15.8% 33.3% 3.00 -52.6%

Away win 9.0% 26.0% 3.85 -65.3%

Over 2.5 60.5% 44.4% 2.25 +36.1%

Over 3.5 38.2% — — —

BTTS 46.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 19.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.2%

H 75% / xG 2.4-0.7 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 12.8%

#2 1–0 10.6%

#3 3–0 10.4%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 1–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lerumo Lions2.4

Baroka0.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 38.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LERUMO LIONS · PPG 1.25

BAROKA · PPG 0.33

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.25), Away POOR (0.33) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Lerumo Lions (H) 75.3%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +43.1%

Draw 15.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -52.6%

Baroka (A) 9.0%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -65.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lerumo Lions face Baroka in South-Africa - 1st Division on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lerumo Lions a 75% chance, the draw 16% and Baroka 9%, so Lerumo Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Lerumo Lions and 0.7 for Baroka (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lerumo Lions are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.33 for Baroka. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +43.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Lerumo Lions vs Baroka Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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