Today / USA - MLS Next Pro / St. Louis City II vs Real Monarchs
St. Louis City II vs Real Monarchs Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro
Group Stage ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 23:00
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
H 52% / xG 2.1-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%
Form & verdict
ST. LOUIS CITY II · PPG 1.50
REAL MONARCHS · PPG 0.78
xG gap +0.80 - moderate Home edge
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
St. Louis City II face Real Monarchs in USA - MLS Next Pro on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Louis City II a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Real Monarchs 25%, so St. Louis City II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for St. Louis City II and 1.3 for Real Monarchs (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Louis City II are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.78 for Real Monarchs.