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Ordabasy vs FK Tobol Kostanay Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 15:00

Ordabasy

PPG 2.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

FK Tobol Kostanay

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 71.0% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a clear edge.

+10.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-12.9%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.9%1-17.0%1-22.0%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.5%2-18.5%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.7%3-16.9%3-22.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-012.7%4+-17.4%4+-22.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.0% 64.5% 1.55 +10.1%

Draw 19.5% 26.7% 3.75 -16.1%

Away win 9.5% 19.0% 5.25 -30.1%

Over 2.5 60.7% 55.6% 1.80 +9.3%

Over 3.5 37.1% 33.3% 3.00 +11.3%

BTTS 48.7% 55.6% 1.80 -12.3%

Home O1.5 60.1% 60.6% 1.65 -0.8%

Away O1.5 17.4% 26.7% 3.75 -20.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.7%

H 71% / xG 2.4-0.6 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.5%

#2 3–0 11.7%

#3 1–0 11.9%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 1–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ordabasy2.4

FK Tobol Kostanay0.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ORDABASY · PPG 2.60

FK TOBOL KOSTANAY · PPG 0.20

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.85 for Home, form 2.60 vs 0.20 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Ordabasy (H) 71.0%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV +10.1%

Draw 19.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -16.1%

FK Tobol Kostanay (A) 9.5%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -30.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ordabasy face FK Tobol Kostanay in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ordabasy a 71% chance, the draw 20% and FK Tobol Kostanay 10%, so Ordabasy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Ordabasy and 0.6 for FK Tobol Kostanay (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ordabasy are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 0.20 for FK Tobol Kostanay. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.3%.

Ordabasy vs FK Tobol Kostanay Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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