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Yelimay Semey vs Kaisar Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Regular Season - 19 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 14:00

Yelimay Semey

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kaisar

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-16.7%0-22.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.6%1-111.1%1-23.9%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.9%2-19.1%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.1%3-15.0%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-13.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 56.5% 1.77 -5.1%

Draw 24.7% 29.0% 3.45 -8.9%

Away win 21.7% 25.0% 4.00 -7.9%

Over 2.5 50.0% 55.6% 1.80 -10.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.3% 3.00 -8.3%

BTTS 48.5% 58.8% 1.70 -17.5%

Home O1.5 53.5% 55.6% 1.80 -3.7%

Away O1.5 20.1% 32.3% 3.10 -22.6%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.6%

#2 2–0 12.9%

#3 1–1 11.1%

#4 0–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yelimay Semey1.6

Kaisar0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

YELIMAY SEMEY · PPG 1.38

KAISAR · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.94 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Yelimay Semey (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -5.1%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -8.9%

Kaisar (A) 21.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yelimay Semey face Kaisar in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yelimay Semey a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Kaisar 22%, so Yelimay Semey are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Yelimay Semey and 0.7 for Kaisar (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yelimay Semey are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.00 for Kaisar.

Yelimay Semey vs Kaisar Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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