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Atyrau vs Zhetysu Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 15:00

Atyrau

PPG 1.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Zhetysu

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.3%0-19.9%0-24.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.8%1-112.8%1-25.1%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.2%2-18.3%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.4%3-13.6%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% 42.6% 2.35 +13.0%

Draw 26.8% 32.3% 3.10 -10.2%

Away win 25.1% 34.7% 2.88 -16.6%

Over 2.5 48.0% 46.5% 2.15 +3.2%

Over 3.5 28.9% 25.3% 3.95 +8.5%

BTTS 49.2% 54.6% 1.83 -10.0%

Home O1.5 38.3% 40.8% 2.45 -6.2%

Away O1.5 20.3% 35.1% 2.85 -25.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 48% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 12.3%

#3 1–0 15.8%

#4 2–0 10.2%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atyrau1.3

Zhetysu0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ATYRAU · PPG 1.12

ZHETYSU · PPG 0.90

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.49, combined xG 2.10 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atyrau (H) 48.1%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +13.0%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.2%

Zhetysu (A) 25.1%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atyrau face Zhetysu in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atyrau a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Zhetysu 25%, so Atyrau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Atyrau and 0.8 for Zhetysu (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atyrau are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 0.90 for Zhetysu. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +11.0%.

Atyrau vs Zhetysu Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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