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Kairat Almaty vs Ordabasy Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Regular Season - 19 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 14:00

Kairat Almaty

PPG 2.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ordabasy

PPG 2.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+17.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-17.5%0-23.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.9%1-111.9%1-25.1%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.3%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.7%3-14.9%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-12.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 45.5% 2.20 +17.7%

Draw 24.6% 30.3% 3.30 -11.3%

Away win 21.9% 34.5% 2.90 -21.9%

Over 2.5 50.5% 55.6% 1.80 -9.1%

Over 3.5 29.8% 33.3% 3.00 -6.4%

BTTS 52.3% 61.7% 1.62 -15.3%

Home O1.5 49.4% 48.8% 2.05 +1.3%

Away O1.5 20.8% 40.8% 2.45 -29.4%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.3%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0 13.9%

#3 2–0 10.9%

#4 0–0 8.8%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kairat Almaty1.6

Ordabasy0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KAIRAT ALMATY · PPG 2.25

ORDABASY · PPG 2.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.72 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kairat Almaty (H) 53.5%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +17.7%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.3%

Ordabasy (A) 21.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -21.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kairat Almaty face Ordabasy in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kairat Almaty a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Ordabasy 22%, so Kairat Almaty are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Kairat Almaty and 0.9 for Ordabasy (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kairat Almaty are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 2.12 for Ordabasy. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.9%.

Kairat Almaty vs Ordabasy Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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