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Irtysh vs Kaspiy Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 12:00

Irtysh

PPG 0.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kaspiy

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.7%0-110.9%0-24.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.3%1-113.0%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.7%2-17.7%2-23.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.9%3-13.1%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 45.5% 2.20 -0.1%

Draw 28.9% 31.3% 3.20 -4.5%

Away win 25.7% 33.9% 2.95 -14.5%

Over 2.5 44.0% 51.3% 1.95 -14.2%

Over 3.5 22.8% 29.4% 3.40 -13.5%

BTTS 48.7% 57.8% 1.73 -15.8%

Home O1.5 32.9% 45.5% 2.20 -27.6%

Away O1.5 20.3% 37.7% 2.65 -27.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.7%

H 45% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.7%

#2 1–1 13.0%

#3 1–0 16.3%

#4 2–0 9.7%

#5 0–1 10.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Irtysh1.2

Kaspiy0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

IRTYSH · PPG 0.75

KASPIY · PPG 0.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.39, combined xG 1.99 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Irtysh (H) 45.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -0.1%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -4.5%

Kaspiy (A) 25.7%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -14.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Irtysh face Kaspiy in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Irtysh a 45% chance, the draw 29% and Kaspiy 26%, so Irtysh are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Irtysh and 0.8 for Kaspiy (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Irtysh are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.73 for Kaspiy.

Irtysh vs Kaspiy Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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