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FK Tobol Kostanay vs Atyrau Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Regular Season - 19 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 13:00

FK Tobol Kostanay

PPG 2.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atyrau

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-19.6%0-23.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.4%1-112.6%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.7%2-18.3%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.7%3-13.6%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 54.1% 1.85 -8.1%

Draw 26.7% 29.9% 3.35 -6.3%

Away win 23.6% 26.3% 3.80 -6.2%

Over 2.5 46.8% 51.8% 1.93 -9.7%

Over 3.5 26.8% 29.9% 3.35 -6.1%

BTTS 48.5% 57.1% 1.75 -15.1%

Home O1.5 38.5% 51.8% 1.93 -25.7%

Away O1.5 20.1% 32.3% 3.10 -22.6%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 50% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 16.4%

#3 0–0 12.5%

#4 2–0 10.7%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FK Tobol Kostanay1.3

Atyrau0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FK TOBOL KOSTANAY · PPG 2.12

ATYRAU · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FK Tobol Kostanay (H) 49.7%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -8.1%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -6.3%

Atyrau (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -6.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

FK Tobol Kostanay face Atyrau in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FK Tobol Kostanay a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Atyrau 24%, so FK Tobol Kostanay are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for FK Tobol Kostanay and 0.8 for Atyrau (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FK Tobol Kostanay are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.00 for Atyrau.

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Atyrau Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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