Today / Kazakhstan - Premier League / FC Astana vs Altay

FC Astana vs Altay Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Regular Season - 19 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 14:00

FC Astana

PPG 2.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Altay

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.39 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-14.5%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-014.7%1-19.0%1-22.7%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.7%2-19.0%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.8%3-16.0%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-14.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.8% — — —

Draw 21.2% — — —

Away win 15.0% — — —

Over 2.5 52.5% — — —

Over 3.5 30.6% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 55.7% — — —

Away O1.5 19.1% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.5%

H 64% / xG 2.0-0.6 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.7%

#2 1–0 14.7%

#3 1–1 9.0%

#4 3–0 9.8%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Astana2.0

Altay0.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FC ASTANA · PPG 2.78

ALTAY · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.39 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Astana (H) 63.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Altay (A) 15.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Astana face Altay in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Astana a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Altay 15%, so FC Astana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for FC Astana and 0.6 for Altay (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Astana are averaging 2.78 points per game versus 1.00 for Altay.

FC Astana vs Altay Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Kazakhstan - Premier League Predictions