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IFK Luleå vs IFK Östersund Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - Promotion Round ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 11:00

IFK Luleå

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

IFK Östersund

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-13.3%0-22.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-06.3%1-17.9%1-24.9%1-32.0%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.6%2-19.4%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-06.1%3-17.5%3-24.6%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-17.9%4+-24.9%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.0% 54.6% 1.83 +0.7%

Draw 21.9% 26.3% 3.80 -10.1%

Away win 23.1% 29.0% 3.45 -12.2%

Over 2.5 66.8% 69.0% 1.45 -3.1%

Over 3.5 44.8% 46.5% 2.15 -3.7%

BTTS 62.1% 70.4% 1.42 -11.8%

Home O1.5 60.1% 63.7% 1.57 -5.6%

Away O1.5 36.5% 44.4% 2.25 -17.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -34.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.1%

H 55% / xG 2.4-1.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.4%

#2 1–1 7.9%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 3–1 7.5%

#5 3–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IFK Luleå2.4

IFK Östersund1.2

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.8% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

IFK LULEÅ · PPG 1.67

IFK ÖSTERSUND · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.15 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

IFK Luleå (H) 55.0%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV +0.7%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -10.1%

IFK Östersund (A) 23.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

IFK Luleå face IFK Östersund in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IFK Luleå a 55% chance, the draw 22% and IFK Östersund 23%, so IFK Luleå are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for IFK Luleå and 1.2 for IFK Östersund (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IFK Luleå are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.50 for IFK Östersund. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +10.1%.

IFK Luleå vs IFK Östersund Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

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