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Lucksta vs Boden Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - Promotion Round ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 14:00

Lucksta

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Boden

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-17.7%0-25.7%0-32.8%0-4+1.5%1 1-07.7%1-111.4%1-28.4%1-34.2%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.6%2-18.4%2-26.2%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.8%3-14.1%3-23.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.1%4+-21.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.5% — — —

Draw 25.2% — — —

Away win 35.3% — — —

Over 2.5 61.2% — — —

Over 3.5 37.5% — — —

BTTS 62.1% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 47.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -34.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.1%

A 35% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 0–0 5.2%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lucksta1.5

Boden1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LUCKSTA · PPG 1.67

BODEN · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lucksta (H) 39.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Boden (A) 35.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Lucksta face Boden in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lucksta a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Boden 35%, so Lucksta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Lucksta and 1.5 for Boden (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lucksta are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.50 for Boden.

Lucksta vs Boden Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

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