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Al Nejmeh vs Al Ansar Prediction— Lebanon - Premier League

Championship Round - 6 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 18:30

Al Nejmeh

PPG 2.53 · HOME

UPCOMING

Al Ansar

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.12, combined xG 2.32 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-110.8%0-26.0%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.0%1-113.2%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.3%2-18.0%2-24.4%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.0%3-13.3%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% — — —

Draw 27.0% — — —

Away win 28.7% — — —

Over 2.5 50.4% — — —

Over 3.5 28.9% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 33.1% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 86%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 44% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 9.8%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Nejmeh1.2

Al Ansar1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AL NEJMEH · PPG 2.53

AL ANSAR · PPG 2.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.12, combined xG 2.32 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al Nejmeh (H) 44.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Al Ansar (A) 28.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Nejmeh face Al Ansar in Lebanon - Premier League on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Nejmeh a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Al Ansar 29%, so Al Nejmeh are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Al Nejmeh and 1.1 for Al Ansar (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Nejmeh are averaging 2.53 points per game versus 2.50 for Al Ansar.

Al Nejmeh vs Al Ansar Prediction— Lebanon - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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