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Al Ahed vs Jwaaya FC Prediction— Lebanon - Premier League

Championship Round - 6 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 14:30

Al Ahed

PPG 1.54 · HOME

UPCOMING

Jwaaya FC

PPG 1.54 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.02, combined xG 2.25 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-112.0%0-26.8%0-32.6%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.8%1-113.3%1-27.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.6%2-17.4%2-24.2%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.4%3-12.8%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.6% — — —

Draw 27.8% — — —

Away win 30.6% — — —

Over 2.5 50.4% — — —

Over 3.5 28.9% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 86%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 42% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.6%

#3 0–1 12.0%

#4 1–0 11.8%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Ahed1.1

Jwaaya FC1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AL AHED · PPG 1.54

JWAAYA FC · PPG 1.54

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.02, combined xG 2.25 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al Ahed (H) 41.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Jwaaya FC (A) 30.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Ahed face Jwaaya FC in Lebanon - Premier League on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Ahed a 42% chance, the draw 28% and Jwaaya FC 31%, so Al Ahed are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Al Ahed and 1.1 for Jwaaya FC (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Ahed are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 1.54 for Jwaaya FC.

Al Ahed vs Jwaaya FC Prediction— Lebanon - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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